Fiscal multipliers, expectations and learning in a macroeconomic agent‐based model
在已有宏观经济主体基模型中，用跨期优化替代简单消费启发式会显著降低政府支出乘数；引入主体对支出冲击效应的信念可大幅改变乘数，且允许主体从重复冲击中学习能使其正确预测这些效应。
Abstract This paper evaluates the government expenditure multiplier and the influence of agents' expectations and consumption choices thereupon in a pre‐existing estimated macroeconomic agent‐based model. If the simple consumption heuristic of the baseline model is replaced by inter‐temporal optimization subject to a budget constraint based on agents' estimations of future income, the multiplier becomes significantly smaller. When agents' beliefs about the effects of expenditure shocks are explicitly introduced, they can strongly increase or decrease the multiplier. If agents are allowed learn about the effects of government expenditure on their income from repeated shocks, they are able to correctly predict these effects.