印度废钞令对国内农产品贸易的影响

The impact of India's demonetization on domestic agricultural trade

American Journal of Agricultural Economics · 2022
被引 11
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

研究了2016年印度废钞令这一极端货币冲击对国内农产品贸易的影响,发现贸易额短期下降16.3%-16.8%,八个月后仍下降11.8%-12.1%,且对特定作物和市场影响更大。

Abstract

Abstract We examine the impact of an extreme monetary shock, India's demonetization of 2016, on domestic agricultural trade. Using data from around 3000 regulated markets for 35 major crops, we find that trade value fell by 16.3–16.8% in the short run, settling at 11.8–12.1% after eight months, driven primarily by a decline in prices. Triple difference estimates suggest sharpest impacts for kharif crops, perishables and crops with minimal government intervention. Markets far away from banks fared worse. Our results suggest that the implosion of value of agricultural trade domestically persisted two growing seasons beyond the one that coincided with the shock, whereas existing findings suggest that the negative impact on the economy as a whole dissipates in that time.

印度废钞农业贸易农作物价格市场距离