The Ex Ante Likelihood of Bubbles
研究投机泡沫发生的事前可能性，提出基于投机者社交互动的理论，发现过去收益增长使兴奋的投机者更能说服同伴时，泡沫更可能发生，并用数据验证了这一预测。
The limits of arbitrage explain how a speculative bubble is sustained; they do not explain how likely one is to occur. To do that, you need a theory about the thing that sporadically causes arbitrageur constraints to bind. I propose a first such theory, which is based on social interactions between speculators. The theory says that bubbles should be more likely in assets where increases in past returns make excited-speculators relatively more persuasive to their peers. I empirically verify this ex ante prediction about bubble likelihoods and show that it is robust to some ex post disagreement about bubble definitions. This paper was accepted by Victoria Ivashina, finance. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4351 .