On the Strategic Timing of Sales by Real Estate Developers: To Wait or To Presell?
研究了房地产开发商在价格不确定时选择等待或预售的策略，利用香港1995-2015年数据发现，预售选项存在时开发商在高波动下会加速销售，且政府限制影响策略效果。
Abstract In timing property listings, real estate developers can exercise the “option to wait” or “option to presell” to mitigate price uncertainty risk. In this study, we study the effectiveness of both strategies under a unified framework. We test our hypotheses using residential development data from Hong Kong between 1995 and 2015. Empirical evidence shows that when the presale option is unavailable, developers tend to adopt the waiting strategy when facing price uncertainty risk. Conversely, when a presale option is available, developers will accelerate sales when price volatility is high. Moreover, the effectiveness of the presale option depends substantially on government restrictions. Our approach facilitates the identification of the net effect of either tool and provides an opportunity to unify conflicting findings in the literature.