The Rise and Fall of India’s Relative Investment Price: A Tale of Policy Error and Reform
研究了印度1981-2006年间相对投资价格先升后降的现象，发现资本品进口替代政策导致1991年GDP比1981年低3%，而关税削减71个百分点使GDP永久性提高20%。
India’s relative price of investment rose 44 percent from 1981 to 1991 and fell 26 percent from 1991 to 2006. We build a simple DGE model, calibrated to Indian data, in order to explore the impact of capital import substitution policies and their reform post-1991 in accounting for this rise and fall. Our model delivers a 23 percent rise before reform and a 31 percent fall thereafter. GDP per effective labor was 3 percent lower in 1991 compared to 1981 due to import restrictions on capital goods. Their removal, and a 71 percentage point reduction in tariff rates, raised GDP per effective labor permanently by 20 percent.