Exporting Uncertainty: The Impact of Brexit on Corporate America
研究发现2016年英国脱欧公投导致美国企业在美国境内削减就业和投资，尤其是资本不可逆、依赖进口中间品、低技能和工会化程度高的行业受影响更大，揭示了外国政治不确定性如何跨境影响国内资本形成和劳动力配置。
Abstract We show that the 2016 Brexit Referendum had multifaceted consequences for corporate America, shaping employment, investment, divestitures, R&D, and savings. The unexpected vote outcome led U.S. firms to cut jobs and investment within U.S. borders. Using establishment-level data, we document that these effects were modulated by the reversibility of capital and labor. American-based job destruction was particularly pronounced in industries with less skilled and more unionized workers. U.K.-exposed firms with less redeployable capital and high input-offshoring dependence cut investment the most. Data on the near universe of U.S. establishments also point to measurable, negative effects on establishment turnover (openings and closings). Our results demonstrate how foreign-born political uncertainty is transmitted across international borders, shaping domestic capital formation and labor allocation.