Term Structure, Forecast Revision, and the Signaling Channel of Monetary Policy
研究发现货币政策冲击会影响10年及以上期限的利率，且紧缩政策会促使私人部门上调GDP预测。本文构建了一个微观基础模型，通过央行的私人信息与贝叶斯更新来解释这些现象，对理解货币政策传导机制有参考价值。
Abstract Monetary policy shocks affect interest rates at long horizons (10 years or more). Furthermore, the private sectorâs real GDP forecasts are revised upward in response to a monetary tightening. These facts challenge the prevailing theories in academic and policy circles. In this paper, I propose a micro-founded model to rationalize those facts, based on the signaling channel of monetary policy. I consider a framework where the central bank has private information about future economic conditions. Agents update their beliefs according to Bayes’ theorem. Policy actions play a signaling role, and may therefore rationalize the above empirical findings.