Endogenous fluctuations and international business cycles
将均衡不确定性引入两国不完全资产模型，分析自我实现预期如何解释国际经济周期中的贸易条件和净出口的反周期行为，并解决Backus-Smith谜题。
Abstract We introduce equilibrium indeterminacy into a two‐country incomplete asset model with imperfect competition to analyze the role of self‐fulfilling expectations or beliefs in explaining international business cycles. We find that, when self‐fulfilling beliefs are correlated with technology shocks, the model can account for the countercyclical behaviour observed for the terms of trade and real net exports while simultaneously generating higher volatilities relative to output, as in the data. The choice of the labour‐supply elasticity is shown to be critical for generating a negative correlation between the real exchange rate and relative consumption, thereby resolving the Backus–Smith puzzle.