On export duration puzzles
研究出口持续时间文献中的两个谜题：一是企业频繁进出出口市场与高固定成本不符，引入凸性生产技术解释；二是关税对出口失败概率的悖论效应，处理内生性后关税增加出口失败概率。
Abstract We investigate two puzzles in the export duration literature. The first puzzle has to do with the frequent entries and exits of firms in export markets, which are at odds with the large fixed export costs in such markets. We introduce convex production technologies in a trade model to show how variable marginal costs create direct linkages between export markets. As fixed export costs vary across destinations, more productive firms need not necessarily export to more destinations. Cost convexity implies that the probability of supplying a given export market is adversely affected by positive export shocks in other markets. This is supported by our empirical analysis of bilateral flows for over 200 agri‐food products to 176 destinations originating from six large exporting countries. The second puzzle has to do with the paradoxical effect of tariffs reported in empirical export duration studies. When endogeneity is addressed, tariffs increase the probability of an export failure.