Measuring sex-selective abortion: How many women abort?
通过统计模型发现，性别选择性堕胎会导致下一胎女孩的生育间隔缩短，并利用印度数据估计了不同群体中重复堕胎的女性比例，发现北部印度女性在头两胎为女孩时重复堕胎概率达13%。
This paper demonstrates that sex-selective abortion induces a correlation between birth interval length and the sex of the next-born child. Using a statistical model, we show that shorter birth intervals for next-born girls indicate repeated sex-selective abortions between consecutive births. Analyzing data from India, we find evidence of repeated sex-selective abortions at birth order 2 when the first child is a girl, and strong evidence at birth order 3 when the first two children are girls. To quantify the extent of repeated abortions, we propose a maximum likelihood estimator that provides the number of women who abort and their likelihood of performing repeated abortions. Our estimation results reveal significant heterogeneity across birth orders, sibling compositions, and socio-demographic and geographic groups. Notably, literate and urban women who first had a girl rarely abort a second time, whereas women in northern India who first had two girls show a 13% likelihood of repeated sex-selective abortion. In this group, the estimated number of aborted female fetuses—the standard measure of sex-selective abortion—is 50% higher than the number of women who abort. • Sex-selective abortions induce correlation between spacing and sex of next-born child. • Shorter spacing for next-born girls indicates repeated sex-selective abortions. • Indian data reveals significant heterogeneity across groups. • Literate and urban women who first had a girl rarely abort a second time. • 13% likelihood of repeated abortion among northern women who first had two girls.