Consumption Response to Credit Expansions: Evidence from Experimental Assignment of 45,307 Credit Lines
通过随机分配信贷额度的田野实验，发现参与者每获得1美元信贷额度，第一季度的消费增加11美分，第三年累计增加28美分，且影响扩展到远离额度上限、有流动资产缓冲的群体，支持预防性储蓄的缓冲库存模型。
In a field experiment that constructs a randomized credit limit shock, participants borrow to spend 11 cents on the dollar in the first quarter and 28 cents by the third year. Effects extend to those far from the limit, those who had the new limits as available credit, and those with a liquid asset buffer. In the short-run, flexible and installment contracts are used in tandem, with unconstrained using installments more. Long-run borrowing is predominantly using installments. Near limits, participants borrow when credit expands but save out of constraints when limits are tight. Findings support a buffer-stock interpretation emphasizing precautionary saving.