The Burden of National Debt: Evidence from Mergers and Acquisitions
研究发现政府债务增加会降低公司被收购的可能性，且对债务与国债替代性强的公司及受财政不确定性影响大的公司影响更显著，同时导致收购方避免现金融资和不可逆交易，平均交易质量下降。
Abstract Increases in government debt are associated with a reduction in the yield spread between high-grade corporate bonds and long-term Treasuries and an increase in fiscal uncertainty. Consequently, increases in government debt significantly reduce the firm’s likelihood of acquisition. The effect is stronger among firms whose debt is a closer substitute for Treasuries and firms with greater exposure to fiscal uncertainty. A positive change in government debt motivates acquirers to avoid cash financing or more irreversible deals. The average deal quality is lower during periods of rising public debt, consistent with heightened fiscal uncertainty impeding monitoring and fostering “bad” deals..