Environmental Adaptation of Risk Preferences
利用埃塞俄比亚小农的激励性面板数据与降雨数据，检验风险偏好是否随环境变化而适应，发现降雨冲击降低同一人的风险容忍度，且历史降雨和地理特征可解释个体间40%的偏好差异。
Abstract We present incentivised panel data measuring risk preferences of subsistence farmers from across Ethiopia and pair them with rainfall data. We use these data to test the hypothesis that risk preferences may adapt to the environment of the decision maker. We find that rainfall shocks decrease risk tolerance for the same individuals over time. We also find that historical rainfall characteristics and geographical features can explain 40% of the variation in preferences across individuals. The time-changing effects are perfectly aligned with the geographical effects we document, painting a unified and highly coherent picture. This provides the first real-world evidence that preferences may systematically adapt to the environment of the decision maker.