The Unintended Consequences of Deportations: Evidence from Firm Behavior in El Salvador
研究了从美国和墨西哥遣返回萨尔瓦多的人员流入如何影响该国正规企业的工资和就业，发现遣返导致正规部门平均工资下降，尤其在面临非正规部门竞争激烈的行业，总就业也减少。
Can repatriation inflows impact firm \n behavior in origin countries? This paper examines this \n question in the context of repatriation inflows from the \n United States and Mexico to El Salvador. The paper combines \n a rich longitudinal data set covering all formal firms in El \n Salvador with individual-level data on all registered \n repatriations from 2010 to 2017. The empirical strategy \n combines variation in the municipality of birth of \n individuals repatriated over 1995-2002—before a significant \n change in deportation policies—with annual variation in \n aggregate inflows of repatriations to El Salvador. The \n findings show that repatriations have large negative effects \n on the average wages of formal workers. This is mainly \n driven by formal firms in sectors that face more intense \n competition from the informal sector, which deportees are \n more likely to join. Repatriation inflows also reduce total \n employment among formal firms in those sectors. Given that \n most deportees spend less than a month abroad, these \n findings suggest that the experience of being detained and \n deported can have strong negative effects not only on the \n deportees, but also on their receiving communities.