Energy substitutability in transition agriculture: estimates and implications for Hungary
估计了匈牙利农业转型期间能源与其他投入的替代弹性，发现持续提高能源价格比补贴资本更能有效降低能源强度，且能源与资本、劳动的替代性缓解了资本萎缩和失业问题。
Abstract Subsidised energy prices in pre‐transition Hungary had led to excessive energy intensity in the agricultural sector. Transition has resulted in steep input price increases. In this study, Allen and Morishima elasticities of substitution are estimated to study the effects of these price changes on energy use, chemical input use, capital formation and employment. Panel data methods, Generalised Method of Moments (GMM) and instrument exogeneity tests are used to specify and estimate technology and substitution elasticities. Results indicate that indirect price policy may be effective in controlling energy consumption. The sustained increases in energy and chemical input prices have worked together to restrict energy and chemical input use, and the substitutability between energy, capital and labour has prevented the capital shrinkage and agricultural unemployment situations from being worse. The Hungarian push towards lower energy intensity may be best pursued through sustained energy price increases rather than capital subsidies.