Can we improve the perceived quality of economic forecasts?
讨论了如何改进经济预测的质量或至少是呈现方式，包括使用50%不确定性区间、注意预测者偶尔同向错误、低估变化趋势、未充分利用预期和近期数据等，对预测者和使用者有参考价值。
A number of topics are discussed concerning how economic forecasts can be improved in quality or at least in presentation. These include the following: using 50% uncertainty intervals rather than 95%; noting that even though forecasters use many different techniques, they are all occasionally incorrect in the same direction; that there is a tendency to underestimate changes; that some expectations and recently available data are used insufficiently; lagged forecasts errors can help compensate for structural breaks; series that are more forecastable could be emphasized and that present methods of evaluating forecasts do not capture the useful properties of some methods compared to alternatives.