The Dynamics of Criminal Behavior
利用天气与犯罪的相关性，研究犯罪率的短期动态，发现滞后犯罪率的正序列相关在考虑天气冲击后发生逆转，说明临时犯罪预防措施的长期效果可能小于短期效果。
Abstract While the persistence of criminal activity is well documented, this may be due to persistence in the unobserved determinants of crime. There are good reasons to believe, however, that there may actually be a negative relationship between crime rates in a particular area due to temporal displacement. We exploit the correlation between weather and crime to examine the short-run dynamics of crime. Using variation in lagged crime rates due to weather shocks, we find that the positive serial correlation is reversed. These findings suggest that the long-run impact of temporary crime-prevention efforts may be smaller than the short-run effects.