An application of Target MOTAD Model to crop production in Zambia: Gwembe Valley as a case study
运用目标MOTAD模型，在考虑降雨风险的情况下，为赞比亚Gwembe Valley确定了最优作物种植模式，发现高粱、水稻和大豆的组合优于现有模式，并讨论了政策调整和农民培训的必要性。
Abstract The Zambian Government encourages crop production in the Gwembe Valley without taking into consideration the risks involved. These risks mainly originate from the stochastic nature of rainfall. This paper, therefore, identifies optimal cropping patterns in the Gwembe Valley by using Target MOTAD Model. The results of the Target MOTAD Model indicate an optimal cropping pattern of growing sorghum, rice and soyabeans. This is different from the existing cropping pattern of sorghum, sunflower, cotton and maize. The overall policy implication of adopting the cropping pattern obtained from the model solution is that some resources allocated to the production of current crops have to be reallocated to the production of new crops. Moreover, since people in the Gwembe Valley are used to growing of cotton, sunflower and maize, the adoption of the suggested new crops will entail the education of the people (through extension services) in the crop husbandry of these crops.