Quantifying Confidence
提出一种将高阶信念的自主变化纳入宏观经济模型的方法，用于解释乐观与悲观情绪波动，并发现这种波动能解释商业周期波动的重要部分，且具有凯恩斯主义特征但不依赖名义刚性。
We develop a tractable method for augmenting macroeconomic models with autonomous variation in higher‐order beliefs. We use this to accommodate a certain type of waves of optimism and pessimism that can be interpreted as the product of frictional coordination and, unlike the one featured in the news literature, regards the short‐term economic outlook rather than the medium‐ to long‐run prospects. We show that this enrichment provides a parsimonious explanation of salient features of the data; it accounts for a significant fraction of the business‐cycle volatility in estimated models that allow for various competing structural shocks; and it captures a type of fluctuations that have a Keynesian flavor but do not rely on nominal rigidities.