Provision for Non-Compulsory Education in Southampton
本文重新审视了1986年汉普郡地方教育局因财政压力拟关闭一所第六学级学院的决策，发现其预测学生人数的方法过时、数据不足且分析肤浅，替代分析表明关闭将违背重组目标，真正问题是教育预算资金短缺。
In 1986, Hampshire Local Education Authority reviewed its provision of non-compulsory education in Southampton and proposed the closure of a sixth-form college. The reason given for the closure was an expected fall in rolls, but the review appears to have been motivated primarily by financial pressures. This paper re-examines the evidence put forward by the LEA to forecast rolls. It is found that outdated methods, inadequate data sources and superficial analyses were used to produce the forecast. An alternative analysis shows that the proposed closure, if implemented, would run counter to the objectives of the reorganization. It is argued that the LEA chose to consult on the wrong problem, and that the real issue was a lack of funds in the education budget.