On the Distribution of Activity Time in PERT
研究了PERT分析中活动时间分布的假设，改进了基于悲观、最可能和乐观完成时间估计均值和方差的方法，并指出通过合理假设可简化分布形式。
In PERT analysis the activity-time distribution is assumed to be a beta distribution, and the mean and variance of the activity time are estimated on the basis of the ‘pessimistic’, ‘most likely’ and ‘optimistic’ completion times, which are subjectively determined by an analyst. In this paper, on the basis of the study of the PERT assumptions, we present an improvement of these estimates. It is also shown that, by means of additional reasonable assumptions, the activity-time distribution in PERT analysis may be essentially simplified.