Spurious Break
分析了断点日期的拟极大似然估计量，证明在数据生成过程非整积时估计量一致，但一阶整积时间序列在无断点时可能虚假估计出中间断点。
A quasi-maximum likelihood estimator of the break date is analyzed. Consistency of the estimator is demonstrated under very general conditions, provided that the data-generating process is not integrated. However, the asymptotic distribution of the estimator is quite different for time series that are integrated of order one. In that case, when there is no break, the analyst can be spuriously led to the estimation of a break near the middle of the time series.