Vulnerable Growth
研究了GDP增长的条件分布如何随经济和金融状况变化，发现金融条件恶化会增大下行风险，而上行风险长期较低，对政策制定者和投资者评估经济前景有参考价值。
We study the conditional distribution of GDP growth as a function of economic and financial conditions. Deteriorating financial conditions are associated with an increase in the conditional volatility and a decline in the conditional mean of GDP growth, leading the lower quantiles of GDP growth to vary with financial conditions and the upper quantiles to be stable over time. Upside risks to GDP growth are low in most periods while downside risks increase as financial conditions become tighter. We argue that amplification mechanisms in the financial sector generate the observed growth vulnerability dynamics.