Seasonal Patterns of Fertility Measures: Theory and Data
研究了已婚女性生育率、怀孕率、平均生育间隔等五项指标的季节模式，通过理论模型预测并与孟加拉国数据对比，发现预测准确，对生育分析有启示。
Abstract Seasonal patterns of five measures of reproduction in a population of married women are considered: marital fertility rate, pregnancy prevalence, mean open birth interval, mean closed birth interval-birth, and mean closed birth interval-woman. In a model the fertility rate is assumed to follow a known trigonometric curve; then the lag and relative variability of the other measures are considered in comparison with the fertility rate curve. The predictions from this theoretical work, when compared with observed patterns and trigonometric regression results for each measure in data from Bangladesh, are shown to be quite accurate. Implications for fertility analyses are discussed.