Does the expectations trap render the Natural-Rate Model invalid in the disinflationary zone?
质疑自然率预期增强菲利普斯曲线模型的有效性，通过考察“预期陷阱”概念，指出在失业率较高时菲利普斯曲线变平，政策导致的失业增加无法降低通胀或通胀预期，使模型在去通胀区域失效或过慢。
This paper questions the validity of the Natural-Rate Expectations Augmented Phillips curve (N-REAP) model by examining the concept of an 'expectations trap'. If a Phillips curve becomes horizontal at higher levels of unemployment—as it did in the curves derived from a century of data by Phillips and Lipsey—then policy-induced increases in unemployment can reduce neither inflation nor inflationary expectations. The expectations trap, therefore, tends to render the policy conclusions derived from the N-REAP model either invalid or intolerably slow in the disinflation region.