Reasons for Market Evolution and Budgeting Implications
区分了两种市场演化类型（内在演化和诱导演化），提出了识别内在演化市场的检验方法，并分析了五种预算制定启示，帮助管理者根据市场类型调整短期或持续预算策略。
Identifying market evolution is a necessary step in persistence analysis of marketing input–output relationships. Using the advertising–sales relationship to represent general marketing input–output dynamics, the authors theoretically distinguish two types of market evolution: (1) intrinsic evolution, in which sales evolve independent of advertising and temporary advertising can generate persistent effects, and (2) induced evolution, in which sales evolution is supported by sustained advertising budgets in an intrinsic-stationary market and there are no real persistent effects of temporary advertising. The proposed intrinsic market evolution test can identify intrinsic-evolving and intrinsic-stationary markets. The authors analyze five major budgeting implications and provide methods to quantify temporary and sustained budgeting. In general, in an intrinsic-evolving market, budgeting can be short-term focused, whereas in an intrinsic-stationary market, the focus should be on sustained budgeting. Percentage budgeting at a sufficient level can create induced evolution. Contrary to conventional wisdom, temporary, intensive advertising campaigns are often not necessary. Empirical illustrations demonstrate the two types of evolutions and the relationships between budgeting methods and sales performance.