Statistical Models for Earthquake Occurrences and Residual Analysis for Point Processes
本文讨论了地震发生时间和震级的几类随机模型，用日本1885-1980年数据比较模型优劣，并通过时间尺度变换进行残差分析，发现模型未捕捉的数据特征，进而研究地震平静期对大地震预测的作用。
This article discusses several classes of stochastic models for the origin times and magnitudes of earthquakes. The models are compared for a Japanese data set for the years 1885–1980 using likelihood methods. For the best model, a change of time scale is made to investigate the deviation of the data from the model. Conventional graphical methods associated with stationary Poisson processes can be used with the transformed time scale. For point processes, effective use of such residual analysis makes it possible to find features of the data set that are not captured in the model. Based on such analyses, the utility of seismic quiescence for the prediction of a major earthquake is investigated.