Health Insurance, Medical Care, and Health Outcomes: A Model of Elderly Health Dynamics
构建了一个老年人健康动态模型，分析处方药覆盖如何通过成本分担和疗效差异影响医疗消费、健康结果及总支出，发现药物覆盖虽降低死亡率但幸存者健康更差、总支出更高。
Prescription drug coverage creates a change in medical care consumption, beyond standard moral hazard, arising both from the differential cost-sharing and the relative effectiveness of different types of care. We model the dynamic supplemental health insurance decisions of Medicare beneficiaries, their medical care demand, and subsequent health outcomes over time. Using parameter estimates obtained with longitudinal individual-level data, we simulate behavior under different drug coverage scenarios. Prescription drug coverage increases drug expenditures by 7 percent to 27 percent over a five-year period. While mortality rates fall slightly, the survivors have poorer health, leading to higher total medical expenditures.