流动性情绪

Liquidity Sentiments

American Economic Review · 2019
被引 30
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

构建了一个关于流动性情绪的理性理论,解释市场结果如何受未来预期影响,并发现情绪波动会导致价格、交易量和福利同向变动,且资产质量在经济景气时更差。

Abstract

We develop a rational theory of liquidity sentiments in which the market outcome in any given period depends on agents’ expectations about market conditions in future periods. Our theory is based on the interaction between adverse selection and resale considerations giving rise to an intertemporal coordination problem that yields multiple self-fulfilling equilibria. We construct “sentiment” equilibria in which sunspots generate fluctuations in prices, volume, and welfare, all of which are positively correlated. The intertemporal nature of the coordination problem disciplines the set of possible sentiment dynamics. In particular, sentiments must be sufficiently persistent and transitions must be stochastic. We consider an extension with production in which asset quality is endogenously determined and provide conditions under which sentiments are a necessary feature of any equilibrium. A testable implication is that assets produced in good times are of lower average quality than those produced in bad times.

流动性情绪多重均衡逆向选择资产质量