Estimating the discount rate policy reaction function of the monetary authority
用双端Type II Tobit模型估算美联储贴现率变化的政策规则，发现美联储逆周期调整贴现率以影响产出和通胀，且对政策指标的响应随货币体制变化。
This paper estimates a policy rule that explains the sign and the magnitude of the Federal Reserve's (Fed's) discount rate changes. It sets out a two-sided Type II Tobit model and develops a procedure for its estimation, considering the discrete and censored nature of the changes. The results suggest that the Fed has conducted discount rate policy counter-cyclically to influence output and to curb inflation, and that the Fed's response to policy indicators varies over monetary regimes. Furthermore, consistency is found between the model prediction of the discount rate change and a classification based on whether the change is technical or non-technical. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.