A structural time series analysis of US broiler exports
用结构时间序列模型分析美国肉鸡出口市场的动态特征、预测能力及政策含义，发现出口市场比国内市场对价格更敏感，汇率变动和加拿大、墨西哥市场干预显著影响出口。
Abstract A structural time series model is used to determine the dynamic characteristics, forecasting properties, and policy implications of factors affecting the US broiler export market. The emphasis is on international market responsiveness. The analysis indicates that in addition to the explanatory variables a trend component has been vital in the expansion of the broiler industry during the study period. The results indicate that export markets are more price responsive than the domestic markets, that interventions in the Canadian and Mexican markets reduce their imports, and exchange rate changes have significant impacts on US exports.