Modeling the ECU against the U.S. Dollar: A Structural Monetary Interpretation
用货币框架研究欧洲货币单位（ECU）对美元汇率，采用均衡条件建模、Divisia货币指标，并解释长期经济关系，预测表现良好。
The proposal that a reformed international monetary system be designed around currency blocs has \ngained some popularity of late. In Europe, the formation of the Euro formalizes the existence of a \nDM-based currency block. Little academic research has been conducted, however, on the properties \nof composite currenciesuch as the Euro. In this article, we examine the properties of the precursor \nto the Euro-namely, the ECU-against the U.S. dollar using a monetary framework. The article \nhas several novel features: Our modeling strategy involves starting with underlying equilibrium \nconditions rather than a final reduced form; uses divisia money rather than the more conventional \nsimple-sum money; interprets, in an economic sense, the long-run relationships; and produces an \nappealing forecasting performance.