A New Distribution Function for Risk Analysis
提出一种替代贝塔分布的新概率分布，用于项目管理和关键路径分析中的风险评估，并讨论了简化估计的方法和验证手段。
AbstractThis paper presents an alternative to the beta continuous probability distribution for risk analysis. Particular attention has been given to two major applications of distributions, namely project management risk and critical path analysis (PERT). In conjunction with the beta, the triangular and normal distributions are frequently employed in order to give sufficient robustness to risk analysis. The beta distribution, as used in PERT, has a major theoretical implementation flaw. The new distribution was developed to give a possible alternative method of assessing risk. It is shown that the requirement to estimate the most pessimistic variate may be replaced by the probability to exceed the mode. Proposals for other simplifications in risk analysis are discussed. Practical means to validate the most appropriate distributions for risk analysis are outlined, and a cost-data case study is included.Keywords: beta distributioncritical path analysisPERTproject managementrisk analysis