Business Cycles and the Behavior of Metals Prices
检验了库存理论关于便利收益随库存增加而递减的假设，发现金属期货价格在库存低时比现货价格波动小，库存高时两者波动相近，并解释了商业周期峰值附近期货与现货价格关系的反转。
The theory of storage says that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases. The authors test this hypothesis by examining the relative variation of spot and futures prices for metals. As the hypothesis implies, futures prices are less variable than spot prices when inventory is low, but spot and futures prices have similar variability when inventory is high. The theory of storage also explains inversions of “normal” futures-spot price relations around business-cycle peaks. Positive demand shocks around peaks reduce metal inventories and, as the theory predicts, generate large convenience yields and price inversions.