The Capital-Investment Appraisal of New Technology: Problems, Misconceptions and Research Directions
本文分析了传统资本投资评估方法对新技术存在的短期偏见批评，指出这些偏见源于技术误用而非方法本身，并讨论了相关批评的有效性。
The application of traditional techniques of capital-investment appraisal to new technology has been criticized for its bias towards short-term gains and the consequent favour of the status quo. This paper considers four classes of criticisms. They relate to the use of payback and discounted cash-flow methods, the assumptions made about the future, benefits of new technology which are ignored, and issues related to management control. The paper rehearses the criticisms and discusses their validity. The overall conclusion is that the biases in capital-investment appraisal are avoidable. The criticisms are not valid with regard to the overall approach of capital-investment appraisal, and the apparent bias is due to misapplication of the techniques.