Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis
针对多方程模型中非嵌套的替代性价格预期机制，提出一种综合选择方法。基于爱荷华州农业生产数据，检验了九种价格预期模型的预测精度和假设检验，质疑仅靠预测精度选择价格预期代理的可靠性。
Abstract Neoclassical economic theory provides an important conceptual framework for the analysis of agricultural production. Theory provides little guidance, however, in the actual specification of empirical models. This paper applies an integrated approach for choosing between price expectation mechanisms in a multiple‐equation model when the alternatives are non‐nested. Nine alternative specifications of market price and policy information are developed. Price forecasting accuracy, non‐nested tests of hypotheses, and out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy are examined for agricultural production in Iowa. The results call into question the reliability of using forecasting accuracy as the sole guide to selecting a price expectation proxy.