Parameterized Multistate Population Dynamics and Projections
本文改进了人口预测流程，强调模型选择而非人口核算。通过参数化模型简化人口信息，便于用户理解，并允许更细致地关注人口变化的时间模式。
Abstract This article reports progress on the development of a population projection process that emphasizes model selection over demographic accounting. Transparent multiregional/multistate population projections that rely on parameterized model schedules are illustrated, together with simple techniques that extrapolate the recent trends exhibited by the parameters of such schedules. The parameterized schedules condense the amount of demographic information, expressing it in a language and variables that are more readily understood by the users of the projections. In addition, they permit a concise specification of the expected temporal patterns of variation among these variables, and they allow a disaggregated focus on demographic change that otherwise would not be feasible.