Is There an Effect of Incremental Welfare Benefits on Fertility Behavior?
利用各州实施家庭封顶政策的时间差异，分析该政策是否减少了15至34岁女性的生育，发现1989至1998年的出生数据不支持生育率下降超过1%的结论。
This analysis exploits the variation across states in the timing of policy implementation to determine if family cap policies lead to a reduction in births to women aged 15 to 34. Vital statistics birth data for the years 1989 to 1998 offer no such evidence. The data reject a decline in births of more than one percent. The finding is robust to multiple specification checks. The data also reject large declines in higher-order births among demographic groups with high welfare participation rates.