Reliability (and Fault Tree) Analysis Using Expert Opinions
本文提出了一种利用专家意见进行多组件并行冗余系统可靠性分析的形式化方法，考虑了单个或一组专家对每个组件的意见，并处理专家共同知识导致的组件寿命依赖关系，最终给出易于计算的近似结果。
Abstract In this article we introduce a formal procedure for the use of expert opinions in reliability (and fault tree) analysis. We consider the case of multicomponent parallel redundant systems for which there could be a single expert or a group of experts giving us opinions about each component. Inherent in our approach are a procedure for reflecting our judgment of the experts' expertise and our own opinions about the components' life lengths. An important issue here is the induced dependencies between the components' life lengths due to any common knowledge shared by the experts. Our final results are approximations that depend on our having small uncertainty about what the experts have to say. The approximations are easily computable, and they can be generalized to cover any coherent system.