Extent and Impact of Incubation Time in New Product Diffusion
研究了产品开发到上市之间的孵化时间，发现其较长且能预测后续销售扩散曲线的形状，孵化时间越长，创新系数越低、销售峰值越晚，用于贝叶斯模型可改进早期预测。
This article examines the time between product development and market launch, and its relation to the subsequent diffusion of consumer durables. We find that this “incubation time” is long. Further, it is a useful predictor of the shape of the subsequent sales diffusion curve. Using the Bass model as a base, we find that the longer the incubation time, the lower the coefficient of innovation ( p ) and the longer the time to peak sales. Further, using the incubation time in a Bayesian forecasting model significantly improves forecasts early in the life cycle. © 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.