Survival Models for Fertility Evaluation
构建了两个比例风险模型来评估队列生育率，使用时变协变量描述女性间及女性内部的生育异质性，并以美国出生率为基准，应用于评估潜在有害暴露工厂工人的妻子生育史。
Abstract Two proportional hazards models for cohort fertility evaluation are constructed. Time-dependent covariates describe sources of heterogeneity between and within women regarding fertility characteristics. In the first model, U.S. birth rates specific to maternal age, race, parity, and birth cohort are used as underlying hazard rates. Covariate effects are estimated by maximizing the full likelihood. In the second model, covariate effects are estimated via Cox regression with stratified underlying hazard rates regarded as unknown nuisance parameters. The two models are illustrated with an evaluation of the fertility histories of the wives of workers at a manufacturing plant with potential for hazardous exposure. Adjustments to the U.S. birth rates for maternal age and parity zero experience are required with the first approach. Then, despite differences in the model-specific estimation procedures, the point estimates of the exposure effect and the estimated standard errors from the two models are practically equivalent.