Interpreting budget deficits in Latin America: the methods with application to Argentina
指出，评估拉美国家财政政策时不能只看原始赤字，必须剔除通胀影响才能得到可自由支配的部分；并以阿根廷数据为例，分解赤字以判断其源于预算内生性还是民粹主义/社会冲突。
Fiscal policy in Latin American countries is too often evaluated on the basis of raw deficit figures. This study demonstrates how the effects of inflation on the deficit must be removed in order to derive the discretionary component of fiscal policy. Once this correction is made, fiscal policy can be evaluated by testing the movement of the deficit with respect to alternative policy targets. As an illustration I employ Argentine data in order to decompose the deficit and determine the degree to which it is a reflection of budget endogeneity versus populism/social conflict.