Evaluation of drought management in irrigated areas
通过动态递归数学规划模型，模拟西班牙南部灌溉区干旱的经济影响，发现水管理者在丰水年过度配水加剧了干旱成本，并评估了完美预测和水银行方案的收益。
This paper focuses on the economic consequences of droughts for the irrigation sector. We develop a dynamic-recursive mathematical programming farm model that assumes imperfect mobility of capital and labour as well as rational expectations about future water availability. The model is calibrated to 12 representative farms belonging to three irrigation communities of the Guadalquivir Basin (south Spain) and used to simulate the 1991–1997 period, which included 3 years of intense drought. Results indicate that the drought imposed significant costs on farmers, but show also that water managers partly exacerbated these costs by allocating excessive amounts of water to irrigators in the abundant years. The model is also used to evaluate the benefits of a perfect water supply forecast and to simulate the economic gains of a voluntary water banking scheme. Results show that the benefits resulting from the perfect forecast of water supply 1 year ahead would represent a relative gain of 5%. However, a voluntary banking system would allow farmers to increase their benefits by 32–82% depending on the supply system.