Inter- and intra-sectoral effects of milk quotas in the U.K. milk industry
用一个计量经济模型模拟了英国牛奶配额对农民、供应商和加工行业的影响，发现农民调整配额的方式（如减少牛群或降低单产）对上下游产业的影响差异很大。
The effects of milk quotas in the u.K. on farmers, their suppliers, and on the processing industries are investigated using a small econometric model. The model equations are derived from estimates of technical and economic relationships in the u.K. milk industry without an undue emphasis on an all-embracing theoretical optimization process. The model is built up from a series of individually plausible equations which, when linked together, produce simulated results for alternative farmer reactions to the imposition of quotas. Thus, reductions in herd size, reductions in cow yield, and a combination of herd and yield reductions are examined. The resulting simulations over a five year period from 1984 to 1988 illustrate changes in livestock numbers, feed demand, and income and employment in various input supply and output processing industries. These changes are of varying size and direction for different inputs and production alternatives to dairying. These results imply that it is not just the overall level of quota production that is important. The methods by which farmers adjust to the new limits are also very significant.