Abducting Economics
提出经济学实证研究应采纳溯因推理方法,即根据意外发现反复生成和选择模型与数据,挑战传统将模型构建与数据推断截然分离的识别问题框架。
Abduction is the process of generating and choosing models, hypotheses, and data analyzed in response to surprising findings. All good empirical economists abduct. Explanations usually evolve as studies evolve. The abductive approach challenges economists to step outside the framework of received notions about the “identification problem” that rigidly separates the act of model and hypothesis creation from the act of inference from data. It asks the analyst to engage models and data in an iterative dynamic process, using multiple models and sources of data in a back and forth where both models and data are augmented as learning evolves.