Use of Intervals and Possibility Distributions in Economic Analysis
本文指出传统资本预算依赖概率论处理不确定性存在局限，提出用区间分析和可能性分布替代，并通过数值例子展示其在经济分析中的应用。
Traditional approaches to capital budgeting are based on the premise that probability theory is necessary and sufficient to deal with the uncertainty and imprecision which underlie the estimates of required parameters. This paper argues that, in many circumstances, this premise is invalid since the principal sources of uncertainty are often non-random in nature and relate to the fuzziness rather than the frequency of data. To capture and quantify correctly the underlying uncertainty present in non-statistical situations, this paper suggests two alternative representations: interval analysis and possibility distributions. The use of these representations in economic analysis is discussed, and their application is illustrated through numerical examples.