Did Late-Nineteenth-Century U S. Tarriffs Promote Infant Industries? Evidence From the Tinplate Industry
研究了1890年麦金莱关税对美国马口铁行业的影响，发现关税虽加速了产业发展，但福利计算表明保护政策未通过成本收益检验。
Did late-nineteenth-century U.S. tariffs promote infant industries? After earlier failures, the tinplate industry became established and flourished after receiving protection with the 1890 McKinley tariff. Treating producers' entry and exit decisions as endogenous, a probability model is estimated to determine the conditions under which domestic tinplate production will occur. Counterfactual simulations indicate that, without the McKinley duties, domestic tinplate production would have arisen about a decade later as U.S. iron and steel input prices converged with those in Britain. Although the traiff accelerated the industry's development, welfare calculations suggest that protection does not pass a cost-benefit test.