Challenges of trade and agricultural development for East/Central Europe and states of the former USSR
研究了中东欧及前苏联国家农业转型对贸易的影响，指出净进口将下降，生产力提升但部分资源将退出农业，若改革成功，前苏联可能成为适度的小麦净出口国。
ABSTRACT The agricultural transition in Central and Eastern Europe and the former USSR reflects a fundamental change in development strategy, and will have a profound impact on agricultural trade. The greatest impact will be indirect, through agriculture's contribution to general economic reform and acceleration of regional and global growth. The direct impact on trade in food and fiber will in aggregate consist of a fall in net imports. Most of the decline in net imports will derive from reduction in demand and improved utilization. Potential for productivity increase is substantial, but not all of the increased productivity will be reflected in the traditional supply response of increased production. Instead marginal resources will shift out of farming, and producers will restructure and adopt new technologies in pursuit of lower costs. Shifts in the commodity composition of trade will occur, and the changes in grain and livestock markets will be greatest. If the reform is successful, the former Soviet Union could become a modest net grain exporter instead of a large importer. Wheat would be the leading export grain, and levels of wheat exports and corn imports could become quite sensitive to relative prices on world markets.