Where Can Tourism-Led Growth and Economy-Driven Tourism Growth Occur?
研究中国29个地区1978-2013年国际旅游增长与区域经济增长的因果关系，发现10个地区为旅游驱动增长，9个为经济驱动旅游增长，并利用贝叶斯概率模型揭示影响这些增长模式的因素。
In this study, we investigate the causal relationships between international tourism growth and regional economic expansion in China, and more importantly, disclose the factors determining the occurrence of these relationships. The empirical results reveal that 10 of 29 regions experienced tourism-led growth (TLG) during 1978 to 2013, whereas nine regions experienced economy-driven tourism growth (EDTG). Different from the past literature, this study uses Bayesian probit models to unveil the factors influencing these different growth patterns. Our results suggest that regions with less-developed economies, larger economic sizes, and covering larger geographic areas are more likely to experience TLG, and regions with less-developed economies are more likely to experience EDTG as well. Lastly, practical implications are provided.