Trends in the Transitory Variance of Male Earnings: Methods and Evidence
利用1970-2004年美国收入动态面板数据，估计男性收入暂时性方差的趋势，发现其在1970年代初至1980年代中期上升，之后保持高位，解释了横截面方差总增长的31%-49%。
We estimate the trend in the transitory variance of male earnings in the United States using the Michigan Panel Study of Income Dynamics from 1970 to 2004. Using an error components model and simpler but only approximate methods, we find that the transitory variance started to increase in the early 1970s, continued to increase through the mid-1980s, and then remained at this new higher level through the 1990s and beyond. Thus the increase mostly occurred about 30 years ago. Its increase accounts for between 31 and 49 percent of the total rise in cross-sectional variance, depending on the time period.